For some time, we’ve noticed stronger home price growth in Santa Clara County than in San Mateo County. This last summer (2024), growth was even more pronounced in several South Bay cities. We’ve speculated that issues in San Francisco could contribute to the slower growth in San Mateo County. Recently, the San Jose Mercury published a short article saying job growth has been stronger in Santa Clara County than in San Mateo County.
Both average and median home prices in Santa Clara County are below San Mateo County. The difference in home price growth seems to be mostly due to location rather than average price.
Los Gatos has higher average prices than Daly City. The two cities were chosen as an example because of their difference in how close they are to San Francisco. Notice how Daly City prices have bounced around a flat growth rate since about 2022 while Los Gatos prices have trended upward.
The Daly City vs. Los Gatos comparison shows a couple of other common trends. First, home prices in more expensive areas tended to fall less in 2008-2009 than in less expensive areas. Second, over the seven years from 2012 through 2018, the less expensive area (Daly City) tended to close the gap. Although economic changes can cause rapid price changes, differences in the impact can take years to recover from.